Iran-Israel: Half-time Draw?

VIEWS FROM OUTSIDE THE APIARY: IAN FLETCHER 

There’s been a lot of coverage over the last month of the brief aerial war between Israel and Iran.  The bombing has stopped, for now.  What happened?  Can we even ask who won?

The powder-keg that is the Middle East. Iran and Israel’s animosity goes back to 1979, but prior to that they were allies.

The background goes back to 1979 when the Shah (ie Emperor) was deposed, and the Islamic Republic of Iran established.  Until then, Israel and Iran were allies.  But the Islamic Republic was very Islamic, led by an elderly Islamic cleric call Khomeini (not to be confused with another elderly cleric called Khameini, who succeeded him, and is still in power).

The Islamic Republic takes the liberation of Jerusalem very seriously. Jerusalem is holy to Moslems, as the place from where the prophet Mohammed ascended into Heaven.  After the 1967 war, Israel had occupied the holy site (which is also the site of the Jewish Temple destroyed by the Romans in AD 90).  Iran, as a matter of policy as well as faith, wants to throw the Israelis out of that site. Iran is a theocratic republic: clerics make the final decisions.  They call the shots.

Israel fears that Iran wants to build nuclear weapons, either to actually use against Israel, or to blackmail Israel. We can’t see into the minds of Iran’s leaders, so we don’t know how valid this fear is. But Israel and many others consider it can’t be disproved.  Israel is small; Iran is large.  If Iran did have deliverable nuclear weapons, Israel’s existence could be threatened. And maybe would.

So, for many years, Israel has planned to bomb the relevant sites, and conducted a shadowy espionage/sabotage campaign, often using assassinations. Western countries have used a mix of economic sanctions and negotiations to exert control over Iran’s nuclear programme, though these collapsed during the first Trump administration.

Along comes Hamas and their attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023.  These were horrific atrocities, and Israel’s policies changed as a result.  ‘Never again’ has been taken literally, and meant systematically trying to destroy their enemies: Hamas in Gaza, Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and finally Iran’s nuclear programme (if it existed).  Syria’s rapacious and bloodthirsty government collapsed along the way (a sort of bonus point).

Three important things: Israel used to make efforts to release Israelis taken hostage (PM Netanyahu’s brother was killed leading a mission to rescue Israeli hostages in Uganda).  No more.  Hostages are being left.  Secondly, assassination.  Israel has used its (very superior) intelligence coverage to assassinate the leaders of organisations it targets. This has been very effective.  Thirdly, it’s apparently succeeded everywhere except where it started, in Gaza.  Hamas may never be destroyed. Israel risks being bogged down for a very long time. And Hamas is winning the contest for world opinion.

Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu has put less emphasis on gaining safe return of his people held hostage, and more on political and military assassinations of their enemies as well as complete destruction of Hamas.

So, back to Iran.  Just as Hamas seems to have launched the October 7 attack to derail talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Israel’s timing last month may have been in part to derail talks between the US and Iran (Israel is always dubious that Iran will ever stick to a deal).  But we also know that Israel had been pressing the Biden administration in late 2024 to bomb Iran (and threatened to do so themselves, possibly with nuclear weapons).  So, the trigger-finger in Israel had been itching for a while.

Last month’s war: Iran lost its aging air defences.  And large holes were blown in some mountains.  Israel showed stunning intelligence coverage (lots of assassinations), and an ability to mount impressive air attacks at very long range.  Iran fired a lot of missiles; a few got through with very poor accuracy. The Americans helped (again, impressive technology at very long range).

But, so what?  Iran’s regime is intact (bombing never brings down governments).  It may well still have a viable nuclear programme, which may have only been set back a bit.  We don’t know, and that uncertainty is a strategic gift to Iran.  Meanwhile, Iranian opinion has hardened in support of the regime (so, less unpopular than it was). 

And Israel?  No one left to bomb.  A gruelling ground war in Gaza, with no end in sight.  More of the West Bank around Jerusalem will be seized and Palestinians evicted, but that’s just armed bullying, not a serious war. 

And domestically, PM Netanyahu is likely to be on the back foot as his coalition comes under political pressure.  Wartime leaders seldom survive the election after the war (ask Churchill, or the entire British Liberal party, or President Johnson).  Israel’s long- term problems are demographic (its Arab and Orthodox Jewish communities are growing much faster than the rest). Regime change in Israel may well come before Iran. 

Iran’s future? The commentator Peter Zeihan notes there have only been seven meaningful regime changes in Iran in 6000 years of civilisation.  An Iranian entity will certainly survive in some form into the next century.  Will Israel? Probably, but it’s much less certain. 

And New Zealand in all this?  Rightly, we’ve kept our heads down.  Our views are irrelevant, and we need to keep on good terms with everyone if we can.  So far, so good.

Ian Fletcher is a former head of New Zealand’s security agency, the GCSB, chief executive of the UK Patents Office, free trade negotiator with the European Commission and biosecurity expert for the Queensland government. These days he is a commercial flower grower in the Wairarapa and consultant to the apiculture industry with NZ Beekeeping Inc.